Students measured the air temperature at different altitudes as they walked up a mountain on one day. Figure 1 shows their results with a line of best fit, extended beyond the data.
Use the line of best fit to estimate the temperature at the summit of a nearby mountain, 1300 m high. Explain why this estimate may be unreliable.
Model answer
Reading the extended line at 1300 m gives about 5.6 °C. This may be unreliable because it is an extrapolation: the students only measured up to 900 m, so we do not know that the trend continues in the same way above that height. The summit is also on a different mountain and may be more exposed to wind or in cloud, and the readings were taken at different times of day as the students walked up, so the temperatures were also changing over time.
Explanation
Extrapolation extends a trend beyond the range of the data; it assumes conditions stay the same, which may not be true. Good answers name extrapolation and then explain a specific reason why the real value could differ.