Water: global supply, demand and insecurity

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B

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Economic water scarcity is when there is enough water in an area, for example in rivers or underground, but people cannot get it because there is not enough money to build pipes, wells and treatment works, or they cannot afford to pay for it. Much of sub-Saharan Africa has economic water scarcity.

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Poor families often cannot afford to pay for a connection to the water supply or for water bills. In informal settlements such as Kibera in Nairobi, where there are few pipes, people have to buy water from vendors or kiosks and often pay more per litre than richer people with piped water. Poor governments also cannot afford to build pipes, treatment works and sewers, so many people have to use rivers or ponds, which may be polluted and cause diseases such as cholera. Women and girls may spend hours each day collecting water, leaving less time for school or paid work, which keeps families poor.

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Water insecurity can lead to conflict when demand for water is greater than supply, especially where rivers or aquifers are shared by more than one country. I think tension over water is very likely to increase in the future, but large-scale wars over water are less likely.

There are good reasons to expect more conflict. Demand for water is rising as populations grow and countries develop, while climate change is making rainfall less reliable in many dry regions. Where a river crosses borders, the upstream country can control the water that downstream countries depend on. On the Nile, Ethiopia began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile in 2011 to generate electricity. Egypt, a desert country that relies on the Nile for almost all of its water, fears that the dam will reduce the flow it receives, and talks have repeatedly failed. Similarly, Turkey's dams on the Tigris and Euphrates, such as the Atatürk Dam, have reduced the flow to Syria and Iraq, causing tension. Even agreements that have lasted a long time can come under strain: the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan survived several wars, but in 2025 India said it was holding the treaty in abeyance after a militant attack in Kashmir.

Water insecurity also causes conflict within countries. In Cochabamba in Bolivia in 2000, mass protests broke out when water was privatised and prices rose sharply, and in the Sahel there are clashes between farmers and herders over access to water and grazing.

However, there are reasons to think conflict can be avoided. In the past, countries have cooperated over shared water far more often than they have fought over it, and many river basins have treaties and organisations to share water, such as the Mekong River Commission. War is extremely costly, so governments usually prefer negotiation. Technology also offers alternatives: wealthy countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia use desalination and recycling to increase supply, and more efficient irrigation can reduce demand.

Overall, I think water insecurity is very likely to lead to increasing tension and to local conflicts in the future, especially in regions such as the Nile and the Middle East, where demand is rising quickly and rivers cross borders. However, full-scale wars fought mainly over water are less likely, because cooperation and new technology give countries other options. The risk will be greatest where water insecurity adds to existing political tensions.