Food: global supply, demand and insecurity

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2022

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50% of 60 = 30
60 + 30 = 90%
The family would need to spend 90% of its income to buy the same food.

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Figure 1 shows that the index rose from about 73 in 2006 to 118 in 2008, and from about 98 in 2020 to 144 in 2022, the highest level on the graph.

In 2007-2008 high oil prices made fertiliser, fuel for machinery and transport more expensive, raising the cost of producing food. At the same time, more maize was being used to make biofuels, droughts reduced harvests in major exporters such as Australia, and demand was rising in growing economies such as China. Some countries banned exports of rice to protect their own people, which pushed world prices even higher.

In 2021-2022 supply chains were still disrupted after the Covid-19 pandemic. Then, in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine; both countries are major exporters of wheat and sunflower oil, so exports through the Black Sea were disrupted. Energy and fertiliser prices also soared, because Russia is a major supplier of both, increasing farming costs around the world.

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Food insecurity can lead to social unrest when food prices rise quickly. Poor families in LICs spend a large share of their income on food, so a sudden price rise means they cannot afford to eat. During the 2007-2008 food price crisis there were food riots in many countries, including Haiti, Egypt and Bangladesh; in Haiti the protests led to the prime minister being removed. In 2011, high bread prices were one of the grievances that fuelled the protests of the Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East.

Food insecurity can also cause violent conflict when groups compete for scarce resources needed to produce food. In the Sahel and in Nigeria's Middle Belt, droughts and desertification have pushed herders to move their cattle onto farmland, leading to deadly clashes with farmers. Competition for land and water was also one of the factors behind the conflict in Darfur in Sudan.

In addition, food shortages force people to migrate in search of food, which can create tension with the communities they move into. Armed groups may also seize food supplies or control aid to gain power over people. Once conflict starts it disrupts farming and blocks aid, making food insecurity even worse, so the two problems reinforce each other in a cycle.