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Is Global Warming Happening?

An article explaining the science behind global warming (at a molecular level) and discussing statistical evidence for an against global warming.

Date : 12/12/2013

Author Information

Yassine

Uploaded by : Yassine
Uploaded on : 12/12/2013
Subject : Physics

Is Global happening? Global warming believed to be a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect, which is a result of the combustion of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is the name given to the phenomena of radiation entering the earth and not returning to space. First solar radiation is emitted from the sun to earth; around 30% of the initial radiation is reflected back into space, the other 70% enters the atmosphere. Of the initial radiation 51% is absorbed by earth (land and oceans) and 19% is absorbed by the atmosphere. What should ideally happen now is that all of the radiation should leave the earth, thus maintaining its current temperature. Gases such as CO2 and H2O prevent all of the radiation leaving the earth. As radiation is leaving the earth it hits the H2O and CO2 molecules causing them to enter an exited state temporarily. The reason some molecules can enter an exited state and other cannot is due to it being polar or not. Only polar molecules have a separation of charge and so can interact with the photon (I don't know why this is and would appreciate an answer as to why). Non polar molecules such as N2 will have no effect on IR radiation. To return to their low energy state the molecule must lose the energy, i.e. emit that photon. This emission of photons is random, thus radiation that would have otherwise left the atmosphere unhindered now is at risk of being reflected back to Earth. Evidence If the earth is getting warmer, it's average temperature being 14.8 ?, then previously solid icebergs which rely on low temperatures to exist should be on the decrease. Consequently all this melted ice should be deposited in the world's oceans, ultimately leading to sea levels rising. This indeed is the case as sea levels have risen 17 cm in the last century but have risen by nearly double that in the last decade. If sea levels are rinsing, we should be seeing a shrinking of ice sheets. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost anywhere from 150 km3 to 250km3 from 2002 to 2006, with Antarctica losing approximately 152 km3 between 2002 and 2005. Over the past 33 years we have seen a dramatic decrease permanent arctic ice, NASA satellites show that the area of permanent ice cover is contracting at a rate of 9% each decade. These are sure statistics; however there are other facts that are almost ignored when arguments for global warming are constructed. Antarctica is the earth's largest covered land mass with roughly 90% of the world's ice and 70% freshwater. On average Antarctica is covered with ice 2133m thick. If all of this ice were to melt, sea levels would rise would rise by 61m, this may not be the case however, since Antarctica's average temperature is -37 ? and never reaches 0 ? in most parts of the continent. It is also important to note the temperature at which water is most dense at, 4 ?. Either way, above or below, the sea expands taking up more space. A study comparing the temperature of oceans with readings from the 1870s and those of modern day shows an upward trend of global ocean warming. The research, which analyses oceanic warming over the last 100 years, conducted by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography displays a 33 ? increase of temperatures of the upper portions of the oceans, from the surface to approximately 700m below. The most significant change in temperature is that of the ocean surface which has increased by 59 ?. If we were to take the expanding oceans theory into consideration, I would think it is fair to assume that ocean temperatures are not decreasing below 4 ?. Therefore the only possibility left is that temperatures are rising above 4 ?, therefore sea levels would appear to be rising through a combination of ocean expansion which is a direct result of higher ocean temperatures. This evidence lends itself very much to the fact that global warming is actually a thing. Another indicator as to whether this disputed, but really shouldn't be (98% of experts now consider GW to be happening), "theory" are ecosystems. For example a 2012 study published in the journal 'Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences' found that in the last 27 years half of the Great Barrier Reef has been lost. Coincidentally these last 3 decades have also been the warmest in 1400 years. There is some chemistry behind this. Coral reefs are structures built from skeletons laid down by hard corals; these are predominantly made of calcium carbonate. As any chemistry student will be able to tell you calcium carbonate decomposes thermally and is very vulnerable to acids. Global warming is doing just that, the increased temperatures hinder the deposition of CaCO3, thus slowing down the growth of coral (if not breaking it altogether). Combined with the increasingly acidic rain (H2SO4, H2NO3 and H2CO3) in addition to increased absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere it's no surprise coral reefs are suffering. Global warming is contributing only 2.1% to temperature increase on continents, compared to 93.4% that is affecting the ocean. Therefore marine wildlife or those that depend on water based habitats are the most likely to suffer. An example is a sand grain sized (supposedly) plankton that is responsible for the retention of 25-50% of the carbon the ocean absorbs in effected by acidification. Of course we can't ignore the polar bear, not the polar bear! Many species have spent millions of years, excruciatingly slowly, adapting to be successful in the specific conditions of their habitats. As seen global warming is causing a rapid change in these habitats, as seen with all the species that went extinct in the previous ice age (which wasn't very rapid at all), many ecosystems will just not be able to keep up. There are of course counter theories. Perhaps the most popular and probably most believable is the theory that solar output is the reason for the earth's warming. Whilst it's true that increased solar output would definitely lead to a warmer earth there are issues with this theory. For example the planet mercury is the closest to the sun, therefore is should have the highest temperature in the solar system (700k on the warm side and -80 on the cold), but it is in fact Venus, a planet further away from the sun. Venus is hotter than mercury (an average temperature of 735k all the time) because it has a thick atmosphere of CO2 (96.5% to be exact). If the sun was really putting out more radiation then all parts of the Earth would warm up, i.e. the stratosphere and the atmosphere. However if radiation was getting in and being stopped by the atmosphere before it reaches the stratosphere, we would expect to see a warming of only the atmosphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. And this is what we have been observing. Conclusion In conclusion I think that global warming is actually a thing since there is so much evidence being created right now in the world around us. Generally the reason why global warming may not be accepted is due politics and not the evidence behind it. We are still very dependent on oil, if for instance we all started investing in free renewable energy, where would that leave the fossil fuel companies. The IPCC itself, when asked whether they think climate change is happening, wanted to say they were 99% sure. Since China, being the industrialising country it is, disagreed a compromise of "above 90% sure" was made. Climate change is undisputable, it's popular knowledge that the climate is changing; the thing we lack is a sense of urgency to do something about it. This computer I am using to write this is running on fossil fuels, so are the lights in this room, the printer too, I'm sure this paper came from a tree. The question with global warming isn't whether it is happening or not, it's what are we going to do about it.

This resource was uploaded by: Yassine