Water Wars

Background There is a dangerous geopolitical fault line running between India and Pakistan and in recent times this tension has been increasing, threatening to trigger a full scale war. India and Pakistan have been openly hostile towards each since their independence in 1947, which has also included three wars. In 2001, the Indian Houses of Parliament in New Delhi were attacked by Pakistani terrorists. This event nearly sparked another war, with the seriousness of the situation only being apparent many months after hostilities had been put on ice. Kashmir has been a highly contentious issue since its birth and both countries have vast numbers of military personnel deployed on the LOC (line of control) in preparation for future attacks. These quarrelsome neighbours have frequent minor excursions between themselves; fortunately these have never resulted in a full scale war.

In recent times relations between these two clashing countries have once again become political flashpoints, however this time it is not territory that is the source of conflict, but something which is an absolute necessity to all life; water. The root of this conflict goes back to the partition of 1947. Both countries agreed to maintain water supplies at pre-independence levels. The first water dispute arose as early as 1948, with India cutting off the flow of canals flowing to Pakistan. A treaty was signed in 1960, but this is becoming an increasingly tense issue, with Pakistan accusing India of stealing its water and India accusing Pakistan of attempting to hide its own mismanagement.

With both countries experiencing phenomenal growth rates and climate change becoming more prominent, water has become a politically charged, militarized commodity. Water is threatening to usurp Kashmir as the power player and will have a much bigger impact on the future relations of these two developing countries. With both countries possessing nuclear arms; this is a situation that needs immediate attention from international authorities. As in 1995, World Bank Vice-President Ismail Serageldin predicted, 'Many of the wars of the 20th century were about oil, but wars of the 21st century will be over water.'

The River Indus The Indus river basin on the Indian subcontinent stretches over 1,165,000 sq km. Its basin encompasses Afghanistan, the Tibetan regions of China, India and Pakistan. It drains in Southern Pakistan, at Karachi into the Arabian Sea. The river Indus flows 1,900 miles (3,100km) through India and Pakistan to the Arabian sea. The upper Indus, high in the Himalayas, is a surging torrent, fed by monsoonal rains and melt water. As it enters the Punjab region of Pakistan the Indus becomes wider and thus, calmer. The river system provides water for one of the largest irrigated areas in the world. Without this water most of the basin would virtually become uninhabitable. Major dams on the Indus or its tributaries include the Tarbela and Mayla in Pakistan and the Bhakra dam in India. Dams in the Indian region have been terrorist targets in the past and continue to be on high alert. In previous incidents, Kashmiri separatists and Islamic Pakistani militants have been intercepted by India's SFF (Special Frontier Force) before any attacks could be carried out, however these terrorists fail to realise that Pakistan would suffer the worst of the consequences if these dams were to be blown up or destroyed. Agriculture is the primary user of the Indus waters and much of Pakistan's economy is reliant on the Indus. After the independence in 1947, the use of the waters of the Indus and its five eastern tributaries became a major dispute between India and Pakistan. With India being accused of trying to hold Pakistan to ransom with its waters, Pakistan's government sought International intervention.

The Indus Water Treat (IWT) With the World Bank as negotiator, both India and Pakistan agreed to the Indus Water Treaty, which was signed in Karachi on September 17th, 1960. This resulted in India receiving exclusive rights over the three eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas and Ravi). While Pakistan gained the three western rivers (Indus, Jeblum and Chenab). As early as 1958, Pakistan's highly regarded geographer Kazi S Ahmed was fully aware of the potential problems between India and Pakistan that were likely to occur. With India's reputation as hard bargainers, millions of Pakistani farmers viewed the IWT result as Pakistan's surrender of sovereignty of the Indus waters. The table below shows the initial, negotiated and final positions of both countries.

Plan India Pakistan Initial Estimate 119 MAF 118 MAF Initial Indian 29 MAF 90 MAF Initial Pakistani 15.5 MAF 102.5 MAF

Revised Indian All of the Eastern rivers + 7% of Western rivers None of the Eastern rivers plus 93% of the Western rivers

Revised Pakistani 30% of Eastern rivers and none of the Western rivers 70% of the Eastern rivers + all of the Western rivers

World Bank Entire flow of the Eastern Rivers Entire flow of the Western Rivers

MAF = The equivalent volume of water that will cover an area of one million acres to a depth of one foot

The IWT is a legal framework for both countries to abide by; however India's continual disregard for the treaty has been well documented. Indian government officials and lawyers have found many legal 'loopholes' within the treaty to misuse the Indus tributary waters. The seeking of loopholes and technical flaws has led to and include construction of dams under the pretence that they are hydroelectric. The diversion of waters to the Indian Provence of Punjab which is known as the 'breadbasket of India'. As well as manipulating river data to ill inform Pakistan of any future floods or droughts. In turn Indian commentators have accused Pakistan of un cooperation as noted by one academic, 'It's frivolous objections to Indian projects and a general unwillingness to engage India constructively are partly to force India to amend the IWT to accommodate the emerging patterns of water use in Pakistan , such as water sharing during periods of shortage-a situation not envisaged in the treaty.'

More recently the Indus has become increasingly militarized. Pakistan has used this natural resource as a fortification of its defences along Indian borders. It has built a series of 'defence canals' at strategic locations which are flooded at times of wars and tensions to prevent crossing by Indian armour and artillery. In 2002, after India mobilized its forces as part of Operation Parakram, Pakistan diverted waters to these 'defence canals' accentuating the then already severe water shortage of 50% to over 70%. The latest dispute revolves around India`s plans to build a 330-megawatt hydroelectric power project on the Kishenganga River; another tributary of the Indus. India says it is well within its rights to build the dam. The project has been on the drawing board since the late 1980s and is expected to cost about $800 million. Pakistan says New Delhi`s plans to divert the course of the river will reduce its flow by a third in the winter. That would make it unfeasible for Pakistan to move ahead with its own plans for a hydroelectric dam downstream.

Problems Pakistan faces one of the severest water shortages in the world as seen in its per capita availability of water per annum fall from 5300 m3 in 1951 to less than 1100 m3 today. This figure is below the internationally recommended level of 1500 m3 and alarmingly close to the critical 1000 m3 level. Compounded with declining flows in the Indus River System, the failure to fill the country's two largest reservoirs to capacity and an unsustainable population growth rate of 2%, Pakistan has a number of issues to resolve. The river Indus also carries a heavy sediment load especially during summer and monsoonal seasons, which in turn leads to river shifting and silting of dams and barrages. The three largest dams in Pakistan, Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma have already lost 25% of their capacity due to silting. Other issues include the intrusion of salinity into the ground water. The dams, barrages and canals built to satisfy the increasing demands of water upstream have made water scarce in the Indus at the estuaries of the Arabian Sea causing the sea to push in and increase the salinity in 1.2 Million acres of farmlands, thus making them redundant. Contamination of aquifers with harmful chemicals such as fluoride and arsenic has also been a cause for concern. Pollution of surface water due to lack of an institutional framework for the safe disposable of urban and industrial waste water is having a profound impact on urban populations. Though estimates vary, it is safe to say that anywhere from around 40 to 55 million Pakistanis- about a quarter to a third of the country's total population, do not have access to safe drinking water, due to water shortages. In much of urban Pakistan, water is contaminated and waterborne disease is rife. Nationwide, 630 children die each day from the waterborne illness of diarrhea. Unsustainable development practices have also exacerbated the problem of water shortages. There is excessive system-loss of water due to improper and antiquated agricultural techniques and heavy cropping of water-intensive varieties like sugarcane and rice.

Future climate change will have profound impact on water shortages and will bring with it, a myriad of problems. When combined these could bring about - Critical stress on Pakistan's already fragile society and economy - Major food shortages - Increased frequency of natural disasters. E.g. drought, flash flooding - Large scale dislocations of populations - Destabilising contention between upper and lower riparian regions. Solutions Pakistan requires urgent mitigation and adaption measures to counter act the vast number of problems it is facing as well as minimizing the effects of water shortages in the future. On a local scale there needs to be an increasing efficiency of irrigation and water usage. Outdated farming methods have been perpetuated throughout generations of rural farmers. Rice, a water intensive crop is the third largest crop in Pakistan. Pakistan's top rice export body said recently that it aims to export 4 million tonnes for the year 2010/11. We must question whether this is a wise decision and the effect of water exports is having on the Indus crisis. Patrick Woodall, research director at Food and Water Watch, an international consumer advocacy group with headquarters in Washington, D.C highlights this issue, 'This is water that is literally being shipped away. There`s a kind of insanity about this. Exporting water in the form of crops is giving water away from thirsty communities and infringing on their ability to deal with water scarcity.' Pakistani farmers may be forced to change to higher yielding, early maturing crops in addition to modifying sowing patterns. Employment of modern micro irrigation techniques will also be needed in coming years to mitigate water shortages, which will entail higher costs. Sustainable agricultural practices must be the driving force of future agricultural policies. On a regional scale close co-operation amongst the Pakistani provinces' such as Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab-Sindh are required to ensure water is equally distributed within the nation. Currently there is a widening gap with the northern regions receiving the majority of the Indus waters. This in turn leads to internal political corruption and disputes which takes away time and resources from the more important pressing issues in Pakistan. On an International scale India and Pakistan need to implement a more proactive Watershed management scheme with an international body such as the World Bank or UN acting as mediators. Many see the IWT has an outdated treaty and one which needs re-evaluation.

Conclusions The water crisis in South East Asia is reaching unprecedented levels previously not envisaged and the animosity between the two countries has been increasing. Millions of people in Pakistan are on the fine line between water shortages and having no water at all. Vast areas of farmland have turned into deserts within the space of a few years. Its effects reach out to the rural Pakistani farmer up to the national security of two nations. With terrorist activity becoming a regular occurrence in India, it is likely India will use the Indus waters as political leverage. There was widespread demand within India for abrogation of the IWT after the attacks on Mumbai during November 2008, by terrorists from Pakistani based militant organisations. In previous wars of 1965 and 1971 the Indus Water Treaty was not broken. However with current developments of water shortages we must question whether this will remain the case in future conflicts.

To see what the future holds for India and Pakistan one needs to concentrate on developments a thousand miles to the East. A very similar scenario is developing with the regions two super-powers. The Sino-Indian relations are heading towards a collision as China is considering a new plan to divert water from the mighty Brahmaputra river from the upper reaches to its drought-affected areas in the North East provinces of China. The Brahmaputra is a river that flows into India and Bangladesh and both these countries are reliant on the Brahmaputra for a number of usages. Ironically, China's intentions of development and diversion of waters, is what India has been doing to Pakistan for many decades. Although Chinese government have thus so far denied any interference within the Brahmaputra basin region, it is widely known that the Xingjian province of China is facing profound water shortages and more recently, Indian and American Intelligence has found Chinese activity around the river Brahmaputra. China's water policy will have a profound impact on the way India deals with the Indus waters. What China's future water policy is according to its government will have a major impact on millions of people in Pakistan. As noted water is not only a natural environmental resource but has become a military and political tool which is being dictated on an international level but having disastrous consequences on the local populations of Pakistan. The global community need to take note of this volatile situation before these countries resort to less democratic measures to secure water needs.