Examination Of Malthus`s Model With Regards To England And China

Thomas Malthus arguably wrote the most influential essay on demographics ever in 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population examined the impossibility of the progress of society due to constraints in the speed that food supply that can be created. Humans were to be constrained to "subsistence" in the long run. An increasing population would always outstrip the speed at which food supply could grow. Various checks would then force population to decrease as the food supply per person fell below a subsistence level. The population would fall back to its previous level with a similar amount of food per person. Ironically Malthus was writing at the very point that this relationship broke down. The Industrial Revolution brought about modern economic growth, defined by both increasing population and GDP per capita (Zanden 2014). This essay will begin by clearly defining Malthus's model. It will then examine how well the model describes Europe and China's pre-modern demographic patterns. Finally the essay will conclude by determining the extent of the usefulness of the model.

Malthus (1798:4-7) begins his argument with two very simple assumptions; "that food is necessary to the existence of man" that "passion between the sexes is necessary and will continue nearly in their current state." His next two assumptions at the time were very reasonable. "Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio." Two final implicit assumptions are required for his conclusions, that technological progress is negligible and that the law of diminishing returns holds true. From this set of six assumptions Malthus derived his model of demographics and the economy. He theorized that since a geometric sequence will always exceed an arithmetic one over time, that there was a limit to population size. Unchecked population growth would happen quickly and the growth of available food much more slowly. At some point the available food would not be able to feed the number of mouths and population would crash. Following a population crash food would be plentiful and the population would begin growing again. This marks the start of the next cycle. At least in Europe Malthus did not observe a large scale population crash. In his eyes the reason for this was that Europeans kept population size in check before it got to an unsustainable level. "Preventive checks" were the dominant force at work in Europe according to Malthus. Abstinence and late marriage created a strong counterbalance on the tendency for rapid population growth as Malthus (1798:19) observed that "foresight in the difficulty of rearing a family" slows the fertility rate. "Positive checks" also played a lesser part in Europe affecting only the lower class. These included famine, disease and war. China's population, Malthus theorized, must be kept down by these positive checks since marriage in China was thought to occur very early. His view of China was that it was an agrarian nation living truly at the subsistence level. He saw famine and disease as key to maintaining a consistent population level. The contrast between his view of Europe and China is stark. Europe through individual agency and rationality slows its population growth through abstinence and late marriage mainly. By doing this a high level of subsistence can be achieved and Europeans are comparatively wealthy. In China no such rational choice is made and families reproduce up until the point of starvation or necessary infanticide.