Critically Analysing The Impact That Forced Migration Has On Conflict.

The impact forced migration (FM) has on conflict is context specific and shaped by a range of different factors and the actors involved. Furthermore, the impact is not universal, across all forms of conflict within a single context, and may simultaneously exacerbate one type of conflict (e.g. local conflict), whilst having little impact on another (e.g. national conflict). This essay aims to understand the causes of these divergent outcomes, by exploring under what conditions FM may cause conflict or exacerbate pre-existing conflict.

To facilitate this analysis, the impact of Rwandan forced migrants (Rfms) in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Tanzania, post the 1994 genocide, is analysed and empirical evidence used accordingly. These case studies have been selected for examination as FM has had visibly different impacts on conflict within them. This analysis is distinct from similar studies as it comparatively analyses FM's impact on two countries, where the forced migrants (fms) are very similar. Fms had the same country of origin(Rwanda), ethnic group (Hutu), cause for flight (conflict and fear of ethnic persecution) and migrated at the same time. This is significant when analysing FM's impact on conflict as, when looking to explain why the outcomes differed in DRC and Tanzania, removing this variable allows one to focus on differences between the two countries as an explanation. Before continuing, it is important to note that this analysis deals only with the displacement crises in DRC and Tanzania and does not investigate the vast number of Hutus who were internally displaced within Rwanda. Despite this, the policy implications, drawn from these two case studies, may also be applied to other countries.

FM has been defined as the "the movements of refugees and internally displaced people (those displaced by conflicts) as well as people displaced by natural or environmental disasters, chemical or nuclear disasters, famine, or development projects" (FMO, 2007). This essay on the impact of Rwandan FM on Tanzania and DRC, deals with only one form of fms, refugees. While many findings may apply to FM more generally, it does not address the impact of internally displaced people. Although the multi-causality of FM is recognised (Birkeland, 2003; Morrell and McDowell, 2010; Van Hear, 2010); in the context of Hutus fleeing Rwanda, the overriding motivation for individual flight was conflict, fear of persecution and reprisal by Tutu forces. As such, this essay only examines the impact of conflict-induced forced migration on conflict. This is important, as one would predict other forms of FM, e.g. environmental and development-induced displacement, to have a different impact on conflict, especially outside the country of origin.

Broadly speaking, conflict refers to "two or more parties with incompatible interests who express hostile attitudes or pursue their interests through actions that damage others" (PCSG, 2001). In this definition, parties can refer to individuals, groups or countries. This is important for this analysis, since recognising the potential for different kinds of actors to be involved validates the approach taken in this essay when examining the impact of FM on different levels of conflict: local, national and interstate. The analysis will be conducted in this order. Although there are numerous other ways to examine conflict, these three have been selected as a framework for a critical analysis of the impact of Rfms in DRC and Tanzania as, on these levels of conflict, the different impacts are most visible.