"china`s Rise Is Peaceful." How Would You Use Foreign Policy Analysis To Interpret This Statement?

China has recently surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy after the United States , marking the continuing rise of China as a great power and emergent superpower since Deng Xiaoping initiated economic reforms in 1979. This rise has resulted in significant implications in the field of International Relations (IR) and in particular Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), whose scholars have made different and conflicting assessments on its rise. It is the job of an FPA scholar to analyse and understand the rise of China, which has been argued favourably by many Chinese statesmen and academics as peaceful and beneficial to the world. Addressing the lack of evidence suggesting aggressiveness, and considering China`s domestic concerns, this article will argue that China`s rise is peaceful, or at least not significantly affecting the current international order. However, assessing geopolitical and historical factors, this article argues that China`s rise will continue to be regarded sceptically by other regional and global powers.

It is important to understand the concept of China`s "peaceful rise" in the first place. This policy, in the words of David Kang, is "an attempt to grow economically and increase China`s diplomatic presence while keeping relations with other nations peaceful." In the words of Chairman Hu Jintao, China will also abstain from interventionism, and does not seek to dominate the East Asia region and beyond:".will not come at the cost of any other country, will not stand in the way of any other country, nor pose a threat to any other country."

Despite the repeated predictions from realists , power transition and theorists focusing on signalling of an aggressive, "revisionist" China who seeks to change the current international order, there has been arguably little evidence supporting their claims. In fact, China`s behaviour in recent decades has been mostly peaceful or at least not destabilising to the current international system. This is based on Johnston`s "revisionist / status-quo" assessment indicators, including: (1) a power`s participation rates in international institutions that regulate the activities of the "international community" (i.e. the current order), (2) its level of acceptance regarding the norms of that community; (3) the extent to which it seek to change the rules and norms of said institutions in its favour; (4) whether it clearly prefers a radical redistribution of material power in the international system; and (5) whether its behaviour is aimed mainly at realising such a redistribution of power, including the potential use of military power . Firstly, China`s membership in international organisations has increased significantly in the post-Maoist period, from virtual isolation (0 in 1966) to 50 in 2000, well above the world average of around 30 . Secondly, China has shown strong support for international norms like sovereignty and free trade (China`s mean tariff rate halved between 1992 (over 40%) and 1997 (under 20%)) , while there is no clear consensus on assessing a state`s compliance to norms regarding arms control, national self-determination and human rights, issues on which China has been criticised. Thirdly, there is little evidence that China is significantly trying to change the formal rules of international institutions ; also, the evidence concerning whether China increasingly opposes the interests of other "status quo" states is exceedingly complex (China`s similarity regarding UN votes with several great powers such as Britain improved, but that with the US worsened in the period 1974-1996) . Fourthly, there has also been little evidence to suggest a clear preference for "multipolarity" (which can loosely be translated to "balancing the US") in Chinese governing and academic circles; there is a diversity of views on the evolution of polarity, and now references to new concepts such as "globalisation" have surpassed those to multipolarisation . Finally, apart from the Taiwan issue, it can be argued that China is not actively seeking to undermine US alliances in the region; furthermore, China has actually sought to strengthen economic ties with the US since the two countries normalised relations in 1979.

Also, from assessing domestic factors, it can be argued that the aim of China`s rise is mainly domestic development in order to bolster the legitimacy of the Communist Party (CCP) and its political system. Domestic problems still remain a large source of friction and dissent, which the Party has to address. Although maintained economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese people out of poverty, there are still 36.3% of China`s population living under $2 (PPP) a day . China`s Gini coefficient, an indicator of income inequality, has risen from 30 in 1978 to 41.5 in 2009 . Rising income inequality has resulted in greater unrest, especially in the countryside, with 23,000 "mass incidents" in 2006 according to one official source . Environmental degradation continues to be a serious cause of concern; for example, the top two of ten most polluted cities in the world, chosen by TIME Magazine, are Chinese. China still has to face the political dissent problems and the separatist movements in Xinjiang and Tibet. It can be argued that the "peaceful rise" policy expresses China`s main aim of securing economic development, which will provide the CCP more ability to address social and political problems, without causing much friction in the way. By this way, the CCP could also prove the legitimacy of the authoritarian one-party regime; indeed, it can be argued that the current popularity of the CCP comes a great deal from its role in China`s economic development. This argument can be further reinforced by the fact that China`s "Paramount Leaders", arguably representing the Party`s interests, have remained firmly in control of China`s foreign policy, minimising the influence from different factions in government.

From these evidences and domestic factors, it can be argued that China`s rise is peaceful in nature. However, Beijing`s concern - that its rise will cause reactions - has certain foundations. A number of factors affect negatively the way other countries in the region, and the "status quo" Western powers, view the rise of China.

Firstly, due to China`s dominating and complex geopolitical position in East Asia, its rise inevitably causes concern among other regional powers. China has the virtue of dominating the "heartland" of East Asia, with its largest population (1.3 billion), occupying resources-rich areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Sichuan Basin. However, China also has a complex border, stretching 22,117 km in land and 14,500 km of coastline, bordering 14 countries. Also, China is being involved in several territorial disputes in the region with Japan, several Southeast Asian nations and India. From a geopolitical viewpoint, China is more powerful than any single country in the area: its mere presence can be a constant security concern. Hence, it can be understood that the immediate reaction from many neighbours of Beijing to "peaceful rise" is a mix of scepticism and distrust.

China`s economic development increasingly needs more vital resources, and this can be another point of friction. Though now boasting the second largest economy in the world, China`s resources are limited: China`s per capita water resources and cultivatable farmland are respectively one-fourth and 40% of the world average; its oil, natural gas, copper and aluminium resources in per capita terms amount to 8.3%, 4.1%, 25.5% and 9.7% of the respective world averages. In addition, most of the lengths of main Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), transporting cargo ships and bringing vital resources (e.g. oil) to China, run through waters of other countries and the disputed Spratly Islands. The need for resources security may push China to more tensions with the respective neighbour countries, which will not help its "peaceful rise".

Historical and conceptual factors, too, affect the way others assess China`s rise. Historically, China maintained an expansive tributary system as a manifestation of its dominance for thousands of years; it only ended in the late 19th century, when the power of China waned. Arguably, this serves as a strong historical analogy, affecting negatively efforts of Beijing to make its rise appear peaceful. In addition, due to Cold War historical analogies, ideological differences, and occasional Sinophobia, China is still often regarded negatively in Western opinions, and especially Western media. For example, during the EP-3 spy plane incident, Morton Kondracke of Fox News suggested that China was not a "civilised" country .

In conclusion, there is a lack of concrete evidence suggesting China`s rise is anything but peaceful or at least not destabilising. Coupled with China`s domestic concerns, it can be argued that this rise is peaceful in nature, serving domestic needs of the ruling CCP. However, geopolitical, historical and conceptual factors will continue to give a bad impression to the growth of China as a great power in the international system. /.

References

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2. Online and Other Sources - Pan, E. "The Promise and Pitfalls of China's 'Peaceful Rise'", Council on Foreign Relations 14 Apr 2006 http://www.cfr.org/china/promise-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise/p10446 - CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html - UNDP Human Development Report 2009 http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/indicators/161.html - World Bank: Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population) http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.2DAY - "China confirmed as world's second largest economy", The Guardian 21 Jan 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/21/china-confirmed-worlds-second-largest-economy - "Peaceful Rise: Strategic Choice for China", Xinhua News Agency 25 Apr 2004. http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/93939.htm - "Rural unrest in China", The Economist 15 Mar 2007 http://www.economist.com/node/8864384 - TIME Magazine http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1661031,00.html - "China anniversary: Why the Communist party still enjoys the support of its people", The Daily Telegraph 03 Oct 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/6256434/China-anniversary-Why-the-Communist-party-still-enjoys-the-support-of-its-people.html - "China`s peaceful rise merely hollow", Express India 25 Apr 2005 http://www.expressindia.com/news/fullstory.php?newsid=45422 - "Boost the nation`s defenses", Taipei Times 11 Oct 2005 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2005/10/11/2003275366 - "Understanding China`s `peaceful rise` in the region", The Jakarta Post 16 Aug 2004 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2004/08/16/understanding-china039s-039peaceful-rise039-region.html - Fox Special Report with Brit Hume, 9 Apr 2001