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How Does The Melting Cryosphere Impact On The Geopolitics And Human Dependence On Ice?

A degree level geography essay which looks at contemporary concerns in the Arctic Region

Date : 27/09/2017

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Fiona

Uploaded by : Fiona
Uploaded on : 27/09/2017
Subject : Geography

Geopolitics refers to the study of the geographical representation, rhetoric and practices which underpin world politics (Agnew, 2003). The Arctic is disproportionately affected by global warming with estimates suggesting that winter temperatures in the next 100 years are likely to rise by 12 C (Osherenko & Young, 2008). Arctic warming and the subsequent melting of the cryosphere thus make it an appropriate theatre in which to situate this discussion as significant changes to its geography will cause a shift in political interests resulting in a new geopolitical order constituted by Arctic-state, non-Arctic state and non-state actors. This essay seeks to explore this shift alongside indigenous dependence on ice, resource extraction and the opening of a new transportationenvironment. Specifically, the assumption that the melting of the cryosphere will inevitably lead to political upheaval and indigenous marginalization will be problematized in light of Young s (2009) assertion that the Arctic transformation is alarmist rather than alarming indicating that these transitions are ongoing and their impact is yet to be realised in relation to both biophysical and socio-political contexts.

The Arctic is not a new geopolitical flash point, but rather has long been a contentious region politically due to its positioning between the North American, European and Asian continents (Osherenko & Young, 2008). Arctic geography has been integral to military and security policies of nation states since imperial expansion in the 15th century as Norway, Denmark and Russia expanded their territories north so to project their geopolitical influence globally and later to capitalize on the whaling metropolis in the 17th century (Vaughan, 1994). Indeed, the geopolitical centrality of the Arctic also came to a tangible crux during the Cold War, as the frontal zone, which separated the two vying superpowers: the USA and Soviet Union. Dodds (2010) outlines how both nations were heavily invested in furthering their bathymetric and geographical knowledge of the Arctic to enhance their surveillance techniques over the cryosphere and gain military advantage in the event of a direct conflict in order to establish geopolitical hegemonies in their respective areas (Nuttall & Callaghan, 2000). These historical events emphasise the geopolitical significance of the Arctic as a geographical focal point in international politics indicating that a crucial change in Arctic geography with the melting of the cryosphere would have the potential to have a considerable impact on geopolitics at a global scale.

Yet, whilst the global political significance of the Arctic s geography is indisputable, it would defy credibility to reduce this landscape to a terra nullius where international politics are played out, but rather the sophisticated indigenous communities inhabiting the ice-covered landscape must be included in this account (Nichol, 2010). Inuit culture spreads across the Arctic surpassing national borders and extending over vast stretched of sea ice as linkages connect indigenous groups from Greenland to Alaska (Berry et al., 2016). The melting of the cryosphere, for this reason, would arguably have major isolating consequences for these communities whose pan-Inuit-trails would be disjointed by a large expanse of water. Furthermore, Inuit live in tandem with their landscape holding intricate knowledges of environmental processes and landscape features enabling them to successfully survive in the harsh Arctic landscape for centuries (Aporta, 2006). Aporta s (2002) anthropogenic study in the Nunavut region in Arctic Canada reveals that Inuit have travelled to the sea ice camp Agiuppiniq for centuries in the winter to hunt walruses relying on a detailed holistic understanding of sea ice incorporating wind direction, tides and moon cycles to ensure their safety and hunting success. Hence, these communities depend on ice for their safety and subsistence suggesting that the melting of the cryosphere could render an end to traditional Inuit ways of life giving way to a new sociopolitical landscape detached from nature characterised environmental exploitation rather than environmental reciprocity.

The Arctic region is renowned by states and private corporations globally to contain a vast quantity of valuable, untouched natural resources argued by Dodds and Nuttall (2015) to have initiated a scramble for the poles as countries look to gather scientific evidence to make claims to the continental shelf extending past agreed economic export zones in line with the conditions set by the United Nations Law on the Sea Convention which dictates that the depth or distance of sedimentary rocks from the foot of the continental shelf must be a natural prolongation (Dodds, 2010). These claims are argued by Anderson (2009) to be of particular importance as it is in thick sedimentary basins that oil and gas reside. Yet, currently reserves of natural resources are expensive both the produce and transport to markets, for instance, the exploratory oil well drilled in the Beaufort sea cost fifty times that of the one drilled in the Gulf of Mexico as industries must erect facilities in conditions of permafrost and restrict their operations to certain seasons (Osherenko & Young, 2008). With the melting of the cryosphere Berry et al. (2016) expresses concern for the contentious geopolitics globally as well as the socio-environmental impact on the indigenous Arctic peoples as the resources become more accessible. Not only are these resources attractive to the Arctic-states as they offer the prospect of secure supplies of energy as an alternative to supplies from the Middle East, but as the Arctic has a small population and plentiful resources, foreign investors from countries with advanced manufacturing complexes but lack raw materials create a market through increased demand for these resources, indeed Canada has entered in an agreement to ship Dome Petroleum to Japan (Young, 2009 Osherenko &Young (2008) Whilst it is important not make generalizations across Arctic states as Russia strictly controls foreign investment for its national development, claims to the Arctic sea bed are in part driven by speculation surrounding the future accessibility of natural resources with the hope it will be a lucrative venture indicating the melting cryosphere could intensify geopolitics in the region.

The melting of the cryosphere is also thought to open up seasonally restricted transport routes which would create more direct shipping links between Asia and North America again making Arctic geography central to global politics (Bravo & Rees, 2006). Dodds (2010) highlights how ice thinning is likely to result in seaborne activity via the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route, which is argued to contribution to neorealism whereby states are more likely to end in conflict than cooperation, as they want to control this geopolitical hub. Indeed, whilst Canada sees the Northwest Passage as its sovereign waters the US contrastingly sees it to be international waters, which causes a source of geopolitical tension. Moreover, Osherenko and Young (2008) outline how nuclear powered icebreakers and icebreaking container ships can now move cargo throughout the year to ports, which were until recently inaccessible for over half the year. This increased transportation will have a large impact on the Arctic peoples as resource companies look to use ports throughout the year to extract resources from mines, such as the Chinese state owned mining interests in the North American Arctic, resulting in Inuit trails across the ice becoming both dangerous and inaccessible (Berry et al., 2016). As the Arctic ice melts making transport-shipping links viable for more of the year there is the potential for both intensified geopolitics and suppression of Inuit ways of life dependent on ice conditions.

However, whilst increased accessibility for both resource extraction and transportation presents the alarmist possibility of geopolitical intensity leading to potential conflict and the marginalization of ice dependent indigenous communities, these politics are ongoing and future consequences far from predictable. Wood Donnelly (2016) highlights how lessons from the whaling industry over a century ago suggest that the passing of peak oil on the Gaussian curve, high extraction and transportation cost, continuing technological innovations and the regulatory environment may result in resource extraction being made unprofitable as the price of oil drops, energy alternatives arise and regulations will make future investments uncertain. In addition, Powell (2008) argues that there is a contemporary clash of scientific knowledge, legal regimes and offshore technologies creating hypothetical spatialities in the circumpolar region as lexical slippages, speculation, innovation and legal claims depict the region as an energy frontier when the reality remains uncertain. Furthermore, Young (2009) argues that the growth of commercial shipping will be unlikely to spark any considerable political tensions as it is likely that countries with competing agendas such the US and Canada over the Northwest passage will find pragmatic ways to solve disagreements just as Norway and Russia devised in the 1970s to manage commercial fishing in the grey zone of the Barents Sea. Indeed, there are currently international organisations, which provide strict regulatory regimes such as the International Maritime Organisation, which could extend their guidelines to incorporate this newly accessible region thus containing pessimism (ibid). International organisations are also in place to voice and ensure the rights of the indigenous peoples meaning that their view point of territoriality is included in international discussion enshrined in the international law dictated by UNDRIP (Nichol, 2010). Article 26 in UNDRIP states that indigenous peoples have the right to the lands, territories and resources which they have traditionally owned, occupied or otherwise used and acquired . Whilst there are still ongoing debates as to how UNDRIP will be incorporated into Arctic geopolitics, indigenous perspectives and needs will undoubtedly be included within discussions over claims and initiatives in the biophysical evolution of the region (ibid). Therefore, this indicates that whilst there are uncertainties about the future of geopolitics and indigenous ways of life in the Arctic the picture painted should not be wholly pessimistic as the exact impact is yet to be realised.

In conclusion, the impact of the melting cryosphere in the Arctic is complex and dependent on a myriad of state and non-state actors globally. Due to the Arctic s central geographical situation significant change to its geography will certainly have an impact on international geopolitics markedly in relation to transport links and resource speculation. Indigenous populations will also inevitably be impacted, as they have to adapt their ways of life in tandem with this environmental evolution. Impacts will be highly contextual based upon specific international treaties such as the International Maritime Organization s ability to adapt, UNDRIP s capacity to intervene in formal discussions and the international oil market positioning in the future. Thus, although these biophysical changes to the Arctic region will impact both geopolitics and indigenous populations the exact nature of these impacts is still to be realised.

Bibliography:

Anderson, A 2009 After the Ice: Life, Death and Geopolitics. Harper Collins.

Aporta, C., 2006, Anijaarniq : Introducing Inuit Landskill and Wayfinding , Nunavut Research Institute.

Aporta, C., 2002: "Life on the ice: Understanding the codes of a changing environment." Polar Record 38 (207): 341-354.

Berry, D.A., N. Bowles, N. and H. Jones, H. eds Governing the North American Arctic: Sovereignty, Security and Institutions. Palgrave Macmillan, Houndsmill and New York

Bravo, M. and Rees, G. (2006) Cryo-politics: Environmental Security and the Future of Arctic Navigation Brown Journal of World Affairs 13(1) 205-215.

Dodds, K. (2010) Flag Planting and Finger Pointing: The Law of the Sea, the Arctic and the political geographies of the outer continental shelf Political Geography 29(2) 63-73.

Dodds, K and Nuttall, M. 2015. The Scramble for the Poles: The Geopolitics of the Arctic and Antarctic. London: Polity Press

Nichol, H.N. (2010) Reframing sovereignty: indigenous peoples and Arctic states Political Geography 29 78-80.

Nuttall, M. and T. V. Callaghan eds 2000 The Arctic: Environment, People, Policy. Harwood Academic Publishers, Amsterdam

Osherenko, G. and Young, O. 2008. The Age of the Arctic: Hot Conflicts and Cold Realities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Powell, R.C. (2008) Configuring an Arctic Commons ? Political Geography 27(8) 827-832.

Wood-Donnelly, C. From Whale to Crude Oil: Lessons from the North American Arctic . Journal of Energy Research and Social Sciences, Vol 16. June 2016

Vaughan, R 1994 The Arctic: A History. Alan Sutton, Stroud

Young, O. (2009) Whither the Arctic? Conflict or cooperation in the Circumpolar North. Polar Record 45(1) 73-82.

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