Kim Making A Monkey Out Of China In The Year Of The Monkey

The Chinese government must have expected that its trouble-bag of an ally, North Korea s strongman Kim Jong-un, would pull some attention-grabbing stunt on the occasion of the Chinese and Korean New Year, which started on February 8 this year. Perhaps that was the reason why Wu Dawei, the Chinese foreign ministry special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, was sent to Pyongyang on February 2, just before the end of the Year of the Sheep.

He carried three requests to North Korea s supreme leader: establish a political dialogue with South Korea, go back to the six-party negotiations on your nuclear program and do not launch any missiles or atomic devices. According to a source in Beijing, Mr. Wu also conveyed a direct message from Chinese President Xi Jinping to Kim Jong-un: China cannot continue to deflect the international anger over North Korea s antics any longer.

The host listened, but obviously did not give a damn. When the special representative landed back in Beijing on February 4, he reported that he had done his best to accomplish the mission but as to the results, I do not know.

As if in mockery to the Chinese, Kim Jong-un ordered a test of what looked like a long-range ballistic missile in the making

Monkey businessAs if in mockery of the Chinese, Kim Jong-un ordered a test of what looked like a long-range ballistic missile in the making. It went off on February 7, 2016 the eve of the Year of the Monkey.

A firm believer that China is the biggest threat to his country (and hence his need for weapons of mass destruction), the pudgy dictator also canceled the New Year holiday celebrated by the two nations for a millennium a joyful fiesta of family reunions over food and firecrackers to scare away evil spirits, and a time for men to gamble. Now in North Korea, the birthday anniversaries of Mr. Kim s grandfather, regime founder Kim Il-sung, are supposed to supplant it as an official public holiday.

Pyongyang s line on the missile is that it merely put an advanced communications satellite in orbit. That satellite ruined the holiday not only for the Chinese, it heightened tensions across northeast Asia. The launch was a defiant signal to the world, especially to the United States, that Kim Jong-un was his own man, neither controlled by China nor afraid of it. And if Washington wanted anything from North Korea, it should talk business directly with him.

Party talkBeijing opposes Mr. Kim s nuclear ambitions. It joined the international condemnation of North Korea in December 2015 after it allegedly detonated a hydrogen bomb the blast occurred at an atomic weapons test site not far from the Chinese border. China s Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately reiterated its government s long-standing policy that the Korean Peninsula must be a nuclear-free zone. Kim Jong-un replied to this in his fashion.

Pyongyang, Feb. 10, 2016: North Korean citizens pose for photos in front of statues of the country s founding father Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il, on the last day of the Lunar New Year holidays (source: dpa)

In January, North Korea s leading daily Rodong Sinmun (Workers Newspaper) published a philosophical commentary full of cryptic allusions to the Chinese: while it is nice to receive aid from outside, North Korea is also fine without it domestic products are the best and self-reliance is most important, it said.

Another article observed that no one will help North Korea in the event of a nuclear war. And while certain countries suggest that North Korea remain calm and show restraint toward its enemies, they take a neutral position themselves in the struggle with capitalists and imperialists. The articles did not name any country, but the signal was clear: Kim Jong-un was not going to budge.

Beijing s melancholyNorth Korea s economy is utterly dependent on China: roughly 70 percent of its total trade is with that country. If Beijing stopped this trade, the Kim regime would be doomed instantly. Yet the fact of the matter is that China has little influence on its client-regime in Pyongyang. The Global Times, a Chinese government newspaper, observed with melancholy that the two nations are no longer friendly and that China finds itself under undue pressure from North Korea. It is not difficult to imagine the bitterness toward Kim Jong-un that Chinese officials mask behind such minced words.

If Beijing stopped this trade, the Kim regime would be doomed instantly. Yet the fact of the matter is that China has little influence on its client-regime in Pyongyang

And it is no longer just words. In early February, China s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that North Korea will pay the necessary price and will see that there are consequences for its behavior. And indeed, China not only supported the United Nations Security Council s resolution that imposed new sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests it drafted its harshest measures, such as inspections of goods leaving or entering the country.

Yet the most likely scenario is that no matter how angry the Chinese might get, Kim Jong-un will stay on his course. He has no emotional attachment to China and his family has understood the mentality of Chinese communists for decades. He is confident that Beijing will not stop propping up his absurdly dysfunctional economy, if only for image reasons: if it allows North Korea to fall, Beijing could be seen throughout much of the world as shilling for the U.S. and the capitalist West.

The Kims have exploited this weakness of China for decades. Kim Jong-un is only bolder. Just like his father and grandfather, he considers China an untrustworthy neighbor and does not feel that he owes it anything despite the fact that without China s costly intervention in the Korean War (1950-1953), there would be no North Korea today, with the Kims on top.

Fears and calculationsHis contempt for China is increasingly out in the open, yet many Chinese officials still believe that sustaining North Korea is necessary to keep the Korean Peninsula stable. If the U.S. and South Korea took over the North, they have argued, hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees would flood China s Jilin province. This line of reasoning has obvious flaws East Germans did not flock to Russia after the two Germanys united in 1990. Yet it still has some currency in Beijing.

In fact, North and South Koreans share ethnicity, language, traditions and culture. If the North Koreans had to or were able to flee, they would opt for South Korea s liberty and higher standard of living. Over the decades, thousands managed to escape from North Korea to China, but South Korea was always their ultimate destination.

Another reason why the Chinese fear change on the Korean Peninsula is the power of the example. If the Koreas were to unite, the emerging state would most likely resemble today s South Korea: a vibrant, successful free market democracy. Such a prospect alarms Beijing. As things stand now, 1.35 billion of China s citizens are quite happy that their economic lot is better than their North Korean brethren s and they enjoy their limited freedoms under the communist system. This attitude could begin to shift if the circumstances in North Korea were to change rapidly.

As things stand now, 1.35 billion of China s citizens are quite happy that their economic lot is better than their North Korean brethren s

Lunar incongruenceThere is one more, bizarre reason why the Chinese may have a problem dealing with Kim Jong-un. He was born in 1983, on January 8. According to the Chinese lunisolar calendar, his zodiac sign is the dog (not the pig as many think). In the Chinese zodiac tradition, the dog should attack and bite people strictly on his master s instructions. The youngest Kim also upends that part of the established order of things.

After three generations of the Kim family in power, China s rulers do not have a positive image of North Korea. Their frustration with their ally is growing. But they are not done yet propping up its regime and tolerating its cruel inhumanity toward its hapless people.

Published on 08 March 2016 GIS